How do psychobehavioural variables shed light on heterogeneity in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance? Evidence from United States general population surveys on a probability panel and social media.

OBJECTIVES: To (1) understand what behaviours, beliefs, demographics and structural factors predict US adults' intention to get a COVID-19 vaccination, (2) identify segments of the population ('personas') who share similar factors predicting vaccination intention, (3) create a 'typing tool' to predict which persona people belong to and (4) track changes in the distribution of personas over time and across the USA. DESIGN: Three surveys: two on a probability-based household panel (NORC's AmeriSpeak) and one on Facebook. SETTING: The first two surveys were conducted in January 2021 and March 2021 when the COVID-19 vaccine had just been made available in the USA. The Facebook survey ran from May 2021 to February 2022. PARTICIPANTS: All participants were aged 18+ and living in the USA. OUTCOME MEASURES: In our predictive model, the outcome variable was self-reported vaccination intention (0-10 scale). In our typing tool model, the outcome variable was the five personas identified by our clustering algorithm. RESULTS: Only 1% of variation in vaccination intention was explained by demographics, with about 70% explained by psychobehavioural factors. We identified five personas with distinct psychobehavioural profiles: COVID Sceptics (believe at least two COVID-19 conspiracy theories), System Distrusters (believe people of their race/ethnicity do not receive fair healthcare treatment), Cost Anxious (concerns about time and finances), Watchful (prefer to wait and see) and Enthusiasts (want to get vaccinated as soon as possible). The distribution of personas varies at the state level. Over time, we saw an increase in the proportion of personas who are less willing to get vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Psychobehavioural segmentation allows us to identify why people are unvaccinated, not just who is unvaccinated. It can help practitioners tailor the right intervention to the right person at the right time to optimally influence behaviour.

Causal Datasheet for Datasets: An Evaluation Guide for Real-World Data Analysis and Data Collection Design Using Bayesian Networks.

Developing data-driven solutions that address real-world problems requires understanding of these problems' causes and how their interaction affects the outcome-often with only observational data. Causal Bayesian Networks (BN) have been proposed as a powerful method for discovering and representing the causal relationships from observational data as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). BNs could be especially useful for research in global health in Lower and Middle Income Countries, where there is an increasing abundance of observational data that could be harnessed for policy making, program evaluation, and intervention design. However, BNs have not been widely adopted by global health professionals, and in real-world applications, confidence in the results of BNs generally remains inadequate. This is partially due to the inability to validate against some ground truth, as the true DAG is not available. This is especially problematic if a learned DAG conflicts with pre-existing domain doctrine. Here we conceptualize and demonstrate an idea of a "Causal Datasheet" that could approximate and document BN performance expectations for a given dataset, aiming to provide confidence and sample size requirements to practitioners. To generate results for such a Causal Datasheet, a tool was developed which can generate synthetic Bayesian networks and their associated synthetic datasets to mimic real-world datasets. The results given by well-known structure learning algorithms and a novel implementation of the OrderMCMC method using the Quotient Normalized Maximum Likelihood score were recorded. These results were used to populate the Causal Datasheet, and recommendations could be made dependent on whether expected performance met user-defined thresholds. We present our experience in the creation of Causal Datasheets to aid analysis decisions at different stages of the research process. First, one was deployed to help determine the appropriate sample size of a planned study of sexual and reproductive health in Madhya Pradesh, India. Second, a datasheet was created to estimate the performance of an existing maternal health survey we conducted in Uttar Pradesh, India. Third, we validated generated performance estimates and investigated current limitations on the well-known ALARM dataset. Our experience demonstrates the utility of the Causal Datasheet, which can help global health practitioners gain more confidence when applying BNs.

Termite mound cover and abundance respond to herbivore-mediated biotic changes in a Kenyan savanna.

Both termites and large mammalian herbivores (LMH) are savanna ecosystem engineers that have profound impacts on ecosystem structure and function. Both of these savanna engineers modulate many common and shared dietary resources such as woody and herbaceous plant biomass, yet few studies have addressed how they impact one another. In particular, it is unclear how herbivores may influence the abundance of long-lived termite mounds via changes in termite dietary resources such as woody and herbaceous biomass. While it has long been assumed that abundance and areal cover of termite mounds in the landscape remain relatively stable, most data are observational, and few experiments have tested how termite mound patterns may respond to biotic factors such as changes in large herbivore communities. Here, we use a broad tree density gradient and two landscape-scale experimental manipulations-the first a multi-guild large herbivore exclosure experiment (20 years after establishment) and the second a tree removal experiment (8 years after establishment)-to demonstrate that patterns in Odontotermes termite mound abundance and cover are unexpectedly dynamic. Termite mound abundance, but areal cover not significantly, is positively associated with experimentally controlled presence of cattle, but not wild mesoherbivores (15-1,000 kg) or megaherbivores (elephants and giraffes). Herbaceous productivity and tree density, termite dietary resources that are significantly affected by different LMH treatments, are both positive predictors of termite mound abundance. Experimental reductions of tree densities are associated with lower abundances of termite mounds. These results reveal a richly interacting web of relationships among multiple savanna ecosystem engineers and suggest that termite mound abundance and areal cover are intimately tied to herbivore-driven resource availability.

Understanding why at-risk population segments do not seek care for tuberculosis: a precision public health approach in South India.

INTRODUCTION: Delaying care-seeking for tuberculosis (TB) symptoms is a major contributor to mortality, leading to worse outcomes and spread. To reduce delays, it is essential to identify barriers to care-seeking and target populations most at risk of delaying. Previous work identifies barriers only in people within the health system, often long after initial care-seeking. METHODS: We conducted a community-based survey of 84 625 households in Chennai, India, to identify 1667 people with TB-indicative symptoms in 2018-2019. Cases were followed prospectively to observe care-seeking behaviour. We used a comprehensive survey to identify care-seeking drivers, then performed multivariate analyses to identify care-seeking predictors. To identify profiles of individuals most at risk to delay care-seeking, we segmented the sample using unsupervised clustering. We then estimated the per cent of the TB-diagnosed population in Chennai in each segment. RESULTS: Delayed care-seeking characteristics include smoking, drinking, being employed, preferring different facilities than the community, believing to be at lower risk of TB and believing TB is common. Respondents who reported fever or unintended weight loss were more likely to seek care. Clustering analysis revealed seven population segments differing in care-seeking, from a retired/unemployed/disabled cluster, where 70% promptly sought care, to a cluster of employed men who problem-drink and smoke, where only 42% did so. Modelling showed 54% of TB-diagnosed people who delay care-seeking might belong to the latter segment, which is most likely to acquire TB and least likely to promptly seek care. CONCLUSION: Interventions to increase care-seeking should move from building general awareness to addressing treatment barriers such as lack of time and low-risk perception. Care-seeking interventions should address specific beliefs through a mix of educational, risk perception-targeting and social norms-based campaigns. Employed men who problem-drink and smoke are a prime target for interventions. Reducing delays in this group could dramatically reduce TB spread.

Cattle select African savanna termite mound patches less when sharing habitat with wild herbivores.

African savanna termite mounds function as nutrient-rich foraging hotspots for different herbivore species, but little is known about their effects on the interaction between domestic and wild herbivores. Understanding such effects is important for better management of these herbivore guilds in landscapes where they share habitats. Working in a central Kenyan savanna ecosystem, we compared selection of termite mound patches by cattle between areas cattle accessed exclusively and areas they shared with wild herbivores. Termite mound selection index was significantly lower in the shared areas than in areas cattle accessed exclusively. Furthermore, cattle used termite mounds in proportion to their availability when they were the only herbivores present, but used them less than their availability when they shared foraging areas with wild herbivores. These patterns were associated with reduced herbage cover on termite mounds in the shared foraging areas, partly indicating that cattle and wild herbivores compete for termite mound forage. However, reduced selection of termite mound patches was also reinforced by higher leafiness of Brachiaria lachnantha (the principal cattle diet forage species) off termite mounds in shared than in unshared areas. Taken together, these findings suggest that during wet periods, cattle can overcome competition for termite mounds by taking advantage of wildlife-mediated increased forage leafiness in the matrix surrounding termite mounds. However, this advantage is likely to dissipate during dry periods when forage conditions deteriorate across the landscape and the importance of termite mounds as nutrient hotspots increases for both cattle and wild herbivores. Therefore, we suggest that those managing for both livestock production and wildlife conservation in such savanna landscapes should adopt grazing strategies that could lessen competition for forage on termite mounds, such as strategically decreasing stock numbers during dry periods.

Herbivore effects on productivity vary by guild: cattle increase mean productivity while wildlife reduce variability.

Wild herbivores and livestock share the majority of rangelands worldwide, yet few controlled experiments have addressed their individual, additive, and interactive impacts on ecosystem function. While ungulate herbivores generally reduce standing biomass, their effects on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) can vary by spatial and temporal context, intensity of herbivory, and herbivore identity and species richness. Some evidence indicates that moderate levels of herbivory can stimulate aboveground productivity, but few studies have explicitly tested the relationships among herbivore identity, grazing intensity, and ANPP. We used a long-term exclosure experiment to examine the effects of three groups of wild and domestic ungulate herbivores (megaherbivores, mesoherbivore wildlife, and cattle) on herbaceous productivity in an African savanna. Using both field measurements (productivity cages) and satellite imagery, we measured the effects of different herbivore guilds, separately and in different combinations, on herbaceous productivity across both space and time. Results from both productivity cage measurements and satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) demonstrated a positive relationship between mean productivity and total ungulate herbivore pressure, driven in particular by the presence of cattle. In contrast, we found that variation in herbaceous productivity across space and time was driven by the presence of wild herbivores (primarily mesoherbivore wildlife), which significantly reduced heterogeneity in ANPP and NDVI across both space and time. Our results indicate that replacing wildlife with cattle (at moderate densities) could lead to similarly productive but more heterogeneous herbaceous plant communities in rangelands.

Plant communities in harsh sites are less invaded: a summary of observations and proposed explanations.

Plant communities in abiotically stressful, or 'harsh', habitats have been reported to be less invaded by non-native species than those in more moderate habitats. Here, we synthesize descriptive and experimental evidence for low levels of invasion in habitats characterized by a variety of environmental stressors: low nitrogen; low phosphorus; saline, sodic or alkaline soils; serpentine soils; low soil moisture; shallow/rocky soils; temporary inundation; high shade; high elevation; and high latitude. We then discuss major categories of hypotheses to explain this pattern: the propagule limitation mechanism suggests invasion of harsh sites is limited by relatively low arrival rates of propagules compared with more moderate habitats, while invasion resistance mechanisms suggest that harsh habitats are inherently less invasible due to stressful abiotic conditions and/or increased effects of biotic resistance from resident organisms. Both propagule limitation and invasion resistance may simultaneously contribute to low invadedness of harsh sites, but the management implications of these mechanisms differ. If propagule limitation is more important, managers should focus on reducing the likelihood of propagule introductions. If invasion resistance mechanisms are in play, managers should focus on restoring or maintaining harsh conditions at a site to reduce invasibility.

Low functional redundancy among mammalian browsers in regulating an encroaching shrub (Solanum campylacanthum) in African savannah.

Large herbivorous mammals play an important role in structuring African savannahs and are undergoing widespread population declines and local extinctions, with the largest species being the most vulnerable. The impact of these declines on key ecological processes hinges on the degree of functional redundancy within large-herbivore assemblages, a subject that has received little study. We experimentally quantified the effects of three browser species (elephant, impala and dik-dik) on individual- and population-level attributes of Solanum campylacanthum (Solanum incanum sensu lato), an encroaching woody shrub, using semi-permeable exclosures that selectively removed different-sized herbivores. After nearly 5 years, shrub abundance was lowest where all browser species were present and increased with each successive species deletion. Different browsers ate the same plant species in different ways, thereby exerting distinct suites of direct and indirect effects on plant performance and density. Not all of these effects were negative: elephants and impala also dispersed viable seeds and indirectly reduced seed predation by rodents and insects. We integrated these diffuse positive effects with the direct negative effects of folivory using a simple population model, which reinforced the conclusion that different browsers have complementary net effects on plant populations, and further suggested that under some conditions, these net effects may even differ in direction.

Piecewise disassembly of a large-herbivore community across a rainfall gradient: the UHURU experiment.

Large mammalian herbivores (LMH) strongly influence plant communities, and these effects can propagate indirectly throughout food webs. Most existing large-scale manipulations of LMH presence/absence consist of a single exclusion treatment, and few are replicated across environmental gradients. Thus, important questions remain about the functional roles of different LMH, and how these roles depend on abiotic context. In September 2008, we constructed a series of 1-ha herbivore-exclusion plots across a 20-km rainfall gradient in central Kenya. Dubbed "UHURU" (Ungulate Herbivory Under Rainfall Uncertainty), this experiment aims to illuminate the ecological effects of three size classes of LMH, and how rainfall regimes shape the direction and magnitude of these effects. UHURU consists of four treatments: total-exclusion (all ungulate herbivores), mesoherbivore-exclusion (LMH >120-cm tall), megaherbivore-exclusion (elephants and giraffes), and unfenced open plots. Each treatment is replicated three times at three locations ("sites") along the rainfall gradient: low (440 mm/year), intermediate (580 mm/year), and high (640 mm/year). There was limited variation across sites in soil attributes and LMH activity levels. Understory-plant cover was greater in plots without mesoherbivores, but did not respond strongly to the exclusion of megaherbivores, or to the additional exclusion of dik-dik and warthog. Eleven of the thirteen understory plant species that responded significantly to exclusion treatment were more common in exclusion plots than open ones. Significant interactions between site and treatment on plant communities, although uncommon, suggested that differences between treatments may be greater at sites with lower rainfall. Browsers reduced densities of several common overstory species, along with growth rates of the three dominant Acacia species. Small-mammal densities were 2-3 times greater in total-exclusion than in open plots at all sites. Although we expect patterns to become clearer with time, results from 2008-2012 show that the effects of excluding successively smaller-bodied subsets of the LMH community are generally non-additive for a given response variable, and inconsistent across response variables, indicating that the different LMH size classes are not functionally redundant. Several response variables showed significant treatment-by-site interactions, suggesting that the nature of plant-herbivore interactions can vary across restricted spatial scales.

The evolution of alternative adaptive strategies for effective communication in noisy environments.

Animals communicating socially are expected to produce signals that are conspicuous within the habitats in which they live. The particular way in which a species adapts to its environment will depend on its ancestral condition and evolutionary history. At this point, it is unclear how properties of the environment and historical factors interact to shape communication. Tropical Anolis lizards advertise territorial ownership using visual displays in habitats where visual motion or "noise" from windblown vegetation poses an acute problem for the detection of display movements. We studied eight Anolis species that live in similar noise environments but belong to separate island radiations with divergent evolutionary histories. We found that species on Puerto Rico displayed at times when their signals were more likely to be detected by neighboring males and females (during periods of low noise). In contrast, species on Jamaica displayed irrespective of the level of environmental motion, apparently because these species have a display that is effective in a range of viewing conditions. Our findings appear to reflect a case of species originating from different evolutionary starting points evolving different signal strategies for effective communication in noisy environments.

Interaction of two oxysterols, 7-ketocholesterol and 25-hydroxycholesterol, with phosphatidylcholine and sphingomyelin in model membranes.

Oxidized analogs of cholesterol (oxysterols) are produced through both enzymatic and non-enzymatic pathways and have been shown to perturb membrane properties in vitro and in vivo. In the present study, the membrane behavior of two naturally occurring oxysterols, 25-hydroxycholesterol and 7-ketocholesterol, was examined in two model systems. The presence of an additional oxygen moiety was found to alter membrane properties compared to native cholesterol and to each other in lipid monolayers, composed of either pure sterol or sterol-glycerophospholipid and sterol-sphingomyelin binary films, as well as in mixed multilamellar vesicles. The ability of oxysterols to condense phosphatidylcholine and sphingomyelin films, their capacity to cause changes in in-plane elasticity moduli, and their propensity to form detergent-resistant membrane domains were all found to be dependant on the location of the oxygen functionality in the oxysterol, the chemical nature of the phospholipid in the model systems, and the oxysterol/phospholipid ratio in the membrane. The findings described in this study with respect to their biophysical/biophysiological implications provide additional insight into the activity of cytotoxic oxysterols in model membranes.